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Table 2 Crohn's disease simulation results

From: Family-based genetic risk prediction of multifactorial disease

Model AUC R 2 T 1 T 5 T 10
General population 0.708 0.054 7.39 4.21 3.23
   P(D I |G I ) 0.726 0.085 15.90 5.71 3.91
   P(D I |G I , D S ) 0.735 0.094 15.88 5.80 3.94
   P(D I |G I , G S , D S )      
Selected population (affected sibling)      
   P(D I |G I , D S ) 0.628 0.042 71.25 60.25 53.75
   P(D I |G I , G S , D S ) 0.648 0.056 82.00 67.20 58.48
  1. Performance characteristics for tests based on the 30 Crohn's disease variants. Index individuals and their siblings were simulated in the unselected and selected (family history positive/affected sibling) scenarios. The prediction models estimate risk based on the index genotype G I , and optionally sibling's phenotype D S and genotype G S . The metrics are the area under the ROC curve (AUC), the squared correlation between disease state and risk (R2) and the relative enrichment of cases in the top 1, 5 and 10% of individuals with the highest risk scores relative to the baseline risk for that population (T1, T5 and T10). See main text for details.