Highly elevated polygenic risk scores are better predictors of myocardial infarction risk early in life than later

Table 2 Percentile vs. prevalence statistics for multivariate logistic regression

	Percentile	PRS only (4-feature model)	Established-at-birth only (5-feature model)	Established-at-birth plus PRS (9-feature model)	Established-at-birth plus non-fixed (14-feature model)	Established-at-birth plus non-fixed plus PRS (18-feature model)
IHD	Top percentile	21.95% ± 1.39	13.52% ± 1.10	29.98% ± 1.65	55.71% ± 1.83	60.25% ± 1.37
IHD	Middle percentile	8.76% ± 0.80	5.48% ± 0.63	7.69% ± 0.89	5.34% ± 0.70	4.50% ± 0.69
IHD	Lowest percentile	3.45% ± 0.47	4.56% ± 0.71	2.79% ± 0.63	0.48% ± 0.18	0.41% ± 0.12
MI	Top percentile	11.38% ± 1.05	6.60% ± 0.72	16.78% ± 1.10	30.95% ± 1.63	35.90% ± 1.66
MI	Middle percentile	3.19% ± 0.35	1.72% ± 0.30	1.95% ± 0.42	1.54% ± 0.46	1.11% ± 0.20
MI	Lowest percentile	0.68% ± 0.31	1.98% ± 0.34	0.59% ± 0.22	0.09% ± 0.09	0.14% ± 0.14
Early MI	Top percentile	0.88% ± 0.32	0.27% ± 0.28	1.34% ± 0.42	4.15% ± 0.52	4.67% ± 0.83
Early MI	Middle percentile	0.07% ± 0.08	0.02% ± 0.05	0.07% ± 0.11	0.02% ± 0.05%	0.00% ± 0.05
Early MI	Lowest percentile	0.00% ± 0.00	0.02% ± 0.05	0.00% ± 0.00	0.00% ± 0.00	0.00% ± 0.00

Entries are observed prevalence of IHD, MI, or early MI, plus or minus 95% CI from 10-fold cross-validation in each indicated model for the top, middle, and bottom 1% of polygenic risk

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